TEHRAN – German Ambassador to Iran Hans-Udo Muzel said on Sunday that his country is interested in the expansion of economic ties with Iran in various areas, the portal of Iran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines and Agriculture (ICCIMA) reported.

Speaking in a meeting with Head of Iran Small Industries and Industrial Parks Organization (ISIPO) Ali Rasoulian for extending a previously signed memorandum of understanding (MOU) on economic cooperation, Muzel said: “I believe that the two countries should cooperate not only in the political and macro sectors, but also in operational fields, and Iran Small Industries and Industrial Parks Organization is a key organization for such cooperation.”

Germany has one of the largest joint chambers of commerce with 1,800 active members in Iran and this shows the depth of economic cooperation between the two countries in various industries, he stressed.

Expressing hope that the existing challenges will be resolved and that good results will be achieved in the Vienna talks, the official continued: “An agreement is expected to be reached in the very near future, and because opportunities are very limited, we should be ready to conclude business cooperation processes as soon as possible.”

Muzel further stressed the need to prepare for the formation of a new business environment between the two countries, and said: “It does not matter what governments do; We want to act with strong faith and with the intention of creating opportunities from challenges.”

He mentioned Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs) as a prominent feature and the backbone of the German economy and added: “In other European countries, small and medium enterprises are also considered important, while in France there is an SME association that covers the field of services, but in Iran and Germany the activities are more focused on the industry.”

“There are many fields of industrial production in Iran and in this respect, it is very different from the other Persian Gulf countries; Because they are more active in the logistics and finance sectors, but are weak in the manufacturing sector,” he added.

Further in the meeting, Rasoulian, for his part, mentioned the history of cooperation between his organization and various German entities and said: “Over the past five years, in addition to working with the German Ministry of Economy and the German Society for International Cooperation (GIZ), ISIPO has also signed memorandums of understanding with the Leipzig University and the German Association of Small and Medium-sized Businesses.”

Referring to the positive contribution of the German government in the technology transfer and industrial development of the Islamic Republic, Rasoulian expressed the willingness of Iranian small and medium-sized enterprises to cooperate with German counterparts.

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Iran Oil Daadandkheran Lawfirm Institute

LONDON (Bloomberg) –The Iranian nuclear talks could hardly be more critical for oil traders. Crude prices have surged 10% this year to around $85 a barrel, with many analysts predicting it’s only a matter of time before they hit triple digits for the first time in eight years.

Whether they rush to that level or retreat hinges in large part on Iran’s return to global energy markets. The Islamic Republic is locked in negotiations in Vienna with world powers including the U.S. Their diplomats are trying to revive a 2015 accord that limited Tehran’s atomic activities in return for an easing of sanctions.

If they strike a deal, Iran may be able to raise exports enough that crude prices fall.

Iran is this year’s “wildcard” as far as oil production’s concerned, according to Bank of America strategists including Francisco Blanch. It’s “the largest risk looming over oil markets.”

Here’s how the market will react to different outcomes.

Comprehensive Deal

A new pact that’s similar to the 2015 agreement, which the U.S. pulled out of in 2018, would be the most bearish outcome for oil traders.

Tehran could sell some of the roughly 80 to 90 million barrels it holds in storage, many of them located in its main market of Asia. It would increase production at oil fields at the same time. Output might climb from around 2.5 million barrels a day — mostly consumed by local businesses — to 3.8 million within six months, according to the International Energy Agency, an adviser to rich countries.

Refiners in China, which last week disclosed its first imports from Iran in more than a year, would probably be among the first buyers of extra shipments.

They are already the main customers for what oil is exported, much of it disguised as coming from other countries to get around U.S. sanctions. Iranian foreign sales of crude and a light form of oil known as condensate averaged roughly 641,000 barrels a day last year, Kpler Ltd. estimates.

Bank of America says Iran’s exports in the year after any comprehensive deal would add up to 400 million barrels, enough to tilt global oil balances into a surplus. The lender sees oil soaring to $120 a barrel by mid-year but then falling to an average of $71 in the fourth quarter, in part because of additional Iranian supplies.

Partial Deal

There’s increasing talk of an interim agreement that falls short of restoring the so-called Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

It’s unclear if Tehran, which has said it only wants a full deal, would get any relief on oil sanctions in such a scenario. If not, that would be a bullish signal for markets. Still, it could at least cool geopolitical tension in the Persian Gulf and reduce some of the many shipping and drone attacks that have been blamed on Iran or its allies.

FGE, a London-based consultancy, is among those predicting Iran will get significant concessions on energy exports even under a partial deal. It sees one being struck in the second quarter and Tehran boosting crude sales to around 1.3 million barrels a day by the end of the year.

Status Quo

Deep divisions continue to plague the negotiations, which have dragged on since April 2021. That’s lead diplomats to contemplate a state of limbo setting in over the next several months.

“So much still has to be worked out,” said Helima Croft, chief commodities strategist at RBC Capital Markets LLC.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says the most likely scenario is that an agreement isn’t reached until the end of this year, with Iran only increasing oil production in 2023. Even then, its return is “unlikely to be rapid,” according to the bank, because fields, pipelines and other infrastructure probably haven’t been properly maintained since 2018.

The Wall Street lender forecasts that Brent crude will rise to $100 a barrel in the third quarter and average $96 for the year as a whole.

Talks Collapse

The most bullish outcome for oil is if the Vienna talks breakdown, with Iran or one of the other powers walking out.

“So much has changed since 2015,” said Croft. “Iran is now a nuclear-threshold state. Would they be willing to relinquish that status? It’s not guaranteed.”

A failure could cause an uptick in shipping and drone strikes in the region. Some might target oil facilities in a similar way to last week’s assault by Houthi rebels on an Abu Dhabi fuel depot or the 2019 bombardment of Saudi Arabia’s critical Abqaiq crude-processing plant. With markets increasingly nervous about the dwindling spare production capacity available to cover disruptions, such an attack could easily trigger a price spike.

If Israel or the U.S. launches air strikes against Iran to try and demolish its nuclear sites, crude could jump by as much as 15%, according to Eurasia Group. At today’s prices, that would take it close to or above $100 a barrel.

TEHRAN – Uzbekistan has proposed to establish a logistics center in Iran’s southeastern Chabahar port in order to increase the transit of its commodities through Iran, the portal of Iran’s Ports and Maritime Organization (PMO) reported.

The proposal was made during a meeting of PMO Head Ali-Akbar Safaei with an Uzbek trade delegation comprised of the country’s deputy minister of investments and foreign trade, deputy transport minister, and ambassador to Iran as well as other senior officials on Sunday in Tehran.

During this meeting, Safaei expressed the Iranian government’s willingness to connect Uzbekistan to the free waters and also Tehran’s readiness to welcome Uzbek companies’ investment in the northern and southern ports of the country.

He stressed that the conditions and infrastructure is prepared for the development of trade cooperation with Uzbekistan, especially in the field of transit, saying: “One of Iran’s economic approaches for the development of foreign trade is to establish a route to transit goods from western China using Uzbekistan’s railway network and maritime transportation through the Caspian Sea.”

The official noted that Iran is also ready to develop a transit route for Uzbekistan through the southern Arab neighbors including Qatar, Oman, the United Arab Emirate (UAE), and India.

Safaei further mentioned Afghanistan’s interest in developing trade cooperation with neighboring countries through the port of Chabahar and said: “Currently, every 10 days, a container ship carrying transit goods arrives from India to Chabahar port, and we plan to add other countries to this route.”

He stated that Chabahar port with a capacity of 12 million tons is fully prepared for providing the necessary infrastructure for loading and unloading of various cargoes, adding: “The Uzbek government can make good use of the existing capacities in the hinterland of Shahid Beheshti port in Chabahar to add value and establish a large trade gateway to Iran’s neighboring countries.”

TEHRAN – The Central Bank of Iran (CBI) plans to launch the national cryptocurrency in a pilot phase in the near future, an official with the bank announced without providing further details.

CBI Vice Governor for IT Affairs Mehran Moharamian said the bank sees cryptocurrencies as a solution for resolving inconsistencies and decentralizing resources, something that many countries have started to benefit from recently.

In 2018, Informatics Services Corporation, the executive arm of the Central Bank of Iran in charge of operating the country’s banking automation and payment services network, was tasked with developing a national cryptocurrency. The company’s officials later said the Iranian cryptocurrency has been designed using the Hyperledger Fabric platform.

It is a blockchain framework implementation and one of the Hyperledger Company’s projects hosted by Linux Foundation.

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TEHRAN – Iranian Finance and Economic Affairs Minister Ehsan Khandouzi has said the 25-year comprehensive cooperation agreement between Iran and China is going to be realized through a series of executive deals which the two countries are going to start signing in the coming months.

Speaking to the press on the sidelines of the signing ceremony of a memorandum between National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company (NIORDC) and Bank Mellat on Saturday, Khandouzi said: “In the coming months, we will start signing contracts not at the general level but in different specific sectors.”

On March 26, 2021, Iran and China signed a comprehensive agreement expressing a desire to increase cooperation and trade relations over the next 25 years.

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TEHRAN – The value of Iran’s non-oil trade rose 25 percent during the third quarter of the current Iranian calendar year (September 23-December 21, 2021) as compared to the same period of time in the past year, the spokesman of the Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration (IRICA) announced.

According to Ruhollah Latifi, Iran traded 43.318 million tons of commodities worth $27.156 billion in the mentioned three months, IRNA reported.

The official noted that the weight of the traded goods in the mentioned period declined nine percent year on year.

As reported, the country exported 32.337 million tons of non-oil goods valued at $13.335 during autumn, registering a 17-percent rise compared to the figure for the previous year’s same time span.

The Islamic Republic also imported 10.981 million tons of commodities worth $13.821 billion in the said three months, to register a 37-percent rise in terms of value year on year.

According to Latifi, the value of Iran’s non-oil trade also rose 25 percent during the ninth month of the current Iranian calendar year (November 22-December 21, 2021), as compared to the same month in the past year.

As previously announced by the acting head of IRICA, the value of Iran’s non-oil trade rose 38 percent during the first nine months of the current year (March 21-December 21, 2021), as compared to the same period of time in the past year.

Alireza Moghadasi said that Iran has traded over 122.5 million tons of non-oil products worth $72.1 billion with other countries in the mentioned period.

According to Moghadasi, the weight of trade in the mentioned period also grew by 11 percent in comparison to the figure for the previous fiscal year.

The official put the nine-month non-oil exports at 92.3 million tons valued at $35.1 billion, with a 40-percent rise in value and eight percent growth in weight.

He noted that the value of the country’s non-oil exports in the first nine months of the current year has exceeded the total value of exports in the previous year and the figure is expected to reach $47 billion by the end of the current calendar year (March 20, 2022).

Moghadasi said the value of Iran’s non-oil trade with foreign partners is expected to reach $98 billion by the yearend.

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Tehran, IRNA – Kazakh Ambassador in Tehran Askhat Orazbay has said that Iran and Kazakhstan have witnessed over two-fold growth in their trade exchange during the first nine months of 2021 compared with the preceding year.

Orazbay made the remarks at a ceremony on 30th anniversary of Independence Day of Kazakhstan.As the ambassador said, Iran has been among the first in the world that officially recognized Kazakhstan’s independence [in December 1992] and Kazakhstan will never forget this issue.

Referring to Iran’s support for Kazakhstan in the international arenas, the ambassador said his country also did not leave Iran alone in difficult periods as Kazakhstan hosted two rounds of nuclear talks in 2013 and will be ready to help wherever needed in the future.

He further expressed hope that the future visit of Kazakh president to Iran slated before 17th Nur-Sultan-Tehran joint commission would be an opening for bilateral cooperation.

Ceremony on the 30th anniversary of Kazakhstan’s Independence Day was held in the Iranian capital on Sunday (December 12).

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WASHINGTON (Bloomberg) –The Biden administration has ordered an immediate halt to new federal support for coal plants and other carbon-intensive projects overseas, a major policy shift designed to fight climate change and accelerate renewable energy worldwide.

The wide-ranging directive for the first time bars U.S. government backing for future carbon-intensive ventures, potentially affecting billions of dollars in annual funding as well as diplomatic and technical assistance. The move was detailed in a cable sent late last week to U.S. embassies and obtained by Bloomberg News.

The policy contains significant exemptions, including for compelling national security concerns, foreign policy considerations or the need to expand energy access in vulnerable areas. It also does not apply to existing projects, including some the U.S. has supported under multiple administrations.

Nevertheless, the policy shift could affect a significant number of potential foreign projects, including terminals in eastern Europe and the Caribbean to receive shipments of U.S. natural gas. It also goes beyond constraining financial aid and rules out other, softer forms of government support, including diplomatic and technical assistance that benefits developers of pipelines, liquefied natural gas terminals and other projects overseas.

“Our international energy engagement will center on promoting clean energy, advancing innovative technologies, boosting U.S. clean-tech competitiveness and providing financing and technical assistance to support net-zero transitions around the world,” according to the document.

The move underscores how the Biden administration has made fighting climate change one its most urgent policy priorities. Yet the approach creates a major opening for China, which is eager to fund and finance energy projects around the world, often with sums of money the U.S. has been unable to match.

The administration stressed that while the U.S. government will withhold support, it won’t actively seek to prevent U.S. companies from building coal, oil and gas projects overseas.

“As long as there is demand for fossil energy products, technologies, and services in global markets, the U.S. government will not stand in the way of U.S. companies that are ready and able to meet those needs,” said the guidance to embassies. “The U.S. government will continue to help U.S. energy companies, especially small- and medium-sized businesses, achieve their commercial objectives without compromising global climate ambitions.”

The effort is designed to steer the government’s work toward clean energy sources — not instantly cut off carbon-intensive projects, said a person familiar with the administration’s thinking. The initiative seeks to advance clean energy engagement but not prioritize it above concerns about national security, energy access or prices, said a person familiar with the administration’s thinking.

Environmental advocates have lobbied President Joe Biden’s administration to make such a shift, arguing that the construction of new oil pipelines, LNG terminals and similar projects is not consistent with efforts to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit), a critical threshold for avoiding the most catastrophic consequences of climate change.

The policy’s wide reach is critical, said Jake Schmidt, senior strategic director of the international climate program at the Natural Resources Defense Council.

“The U.S. has provided a lot of political cover or other indirect support for overseas fossil fuel projects through their ambassadors or other means,” Schmidt said. “A country will then prioritize the project — even if there are a bunch of reasons not to do it — because they don’t want to hurt the relationship with a country as important as the U.S.”

For instance, under the Obama administration, the State Department supported efforts to expand fracking in other countries using technology honed in the U.S. Under former President Donald Trump, the U.S. championed deals to build LNG terminals that would be supplied with American natural gas.

The U.S. doled an average of $16 billion in international public finance to just natural gas projects annually from 2017 to 2019 — four times as much as wind and solar — according to a recent report from the International Institute for Sustainable Development, a think tank.

G7 Commitment

The new plan aligns with a commitment the U.S. made in June with other Group of Seven nations to end public financing of “unabated” coal power generation — or plants that lack emission controls to capture carbon dioxide.

The directive makes clear that the U.S. is ruling out government support for new coal power projects unless they fully capture greenhouse gas emissions. “Engagements related to coal generation must be related to full abatement of emissions and/or accelerated phase out,” according to the guidance.

The effort also builds on the Treasury Department’s August guidance that it will oppose support for fossil fuel projects through the World Bank Group and other multilateral development banks. However, the new directive applies government-wide, with federal agencies, including independent financing arms such as the U.S. International Development Finance Corp., developing their own processes to plan and judge exemption requests.

The policy applies to all new work on carbon-intensive energy projects that would involve U.S. government spending of $250,000 or would directly enable the construction of infrastructure that would otherwise not be built.

Exemptions will be allowed for oil and gas projects, including pipelines, power plants and terminals, if they are deemed to significantly advance national security, imperative from a geostrategic perspective or essential to support energy development in particularly vulnerable areas.

Exemptions

The plan applies to new engagements — including cases where funding has not yet been directed to a specific project. It could have implications for long-planned energy developments, such as a liquefied natural gas project in Mozambique.

Government officials will be allowed to seek those exemptions through a formal review process that questions whether ventures would lengthen the lifespan of a fossil fuel technology and if there are no other, more appropriate options. Those reviews will take place on a case-by-case basis, a State Department spokesperson said.

However, some projects are automatically exempted, including those designed solely to stifle methane leaks from natural gas pipelines and other infrastructure. The administration also is extending an automatic exception to ventures when agencies can “demonstrate with confidence that there is a binding and enforceable guarantee” average emissions over the project’s entire lifespan will be below predetermined thresholds, the guidance said.

Environmental advocates have encouraged a deep review of alternatives, arguing that would foster U.S. support for renewable power projects overseas.

The administration made clear the policy is subject to change and fossil fuel projects could become a prudent part of future energy development.

If agencies “repeatedly demonstrate that limited life extensions of existing fossil fuel assets are the most viable option for reaching net-zero emissions, integrating higher levels of clean energy into reliable systems than otherwise possible, and avoiding the build-out of new and long-lived carbon-intensive infrastructure, then this evidence will be a valuable input into a future review” of the policy, the guidance document said.

LONDON (Bloomberg) –The oil producers’ group OPEC+ will likely take a cautious stance when deciding this coming week whether to go ahead with planned output increases after the emergence of a new coronavirus variant sent crude prices tumbling, according to Vitol Group.

There are signs that demand may be weakening in some markets going in to the winter months in Asia and Europe, said Mike Muller, the head of the Asia unit at Vitol, the world’s biggest independent oil trader. The new coronavirus variant will probably lead to more flight cancellations this week, he said.

U.S. crude plunged more than 10% Friday, dropping below $70 for the first time since September, and Brent had its seventh-steepest drop on record as news of the omicron variant spooked traders amid light trading after the American Thanksgiving holiday. OPEC+ was already voicing concern over excess supply after the U.S. and others announced plans to release oil from strategic reserves.

“OPEC+ have erred on the side of caution,” Muller said on a weekly webinar by Dubai consultancy Gulf Intelligence. “Post facto they’ve proven to be right. It is likely they will take into account these fundamentals and the possibility of a demand hit over the winter months.”

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and partners like Russia will meet this coming week to consider whether to enact a planned 400,000 barrel-a-day production increase. The group has been slowly sending more oil to global markets after slashing production last year at the onset of the pandemic. The group, which will be discussing January production, can pause the monthly increases to account for fluctuations in demand and some members favor that approach.

“The market was rattled by fear of the unknown,” Muller said of last week’s rout, adding that he thought the drop was excessive given not enough is known about the new Covid strain.

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Oil logged its biggest weekly drop since August as Europe’s worsening Covid-19 crisis renewed the prospect of lockdowns just as key consuming nations look to add emergency supply to the market.

West Texas Intermediate for January delivery tumbled 3.2%, while the expiring December contract lost 3.7%. Europe’s Brent skidded 2.9%. The wave of infections in Europe is growing, once again raising the prospect of mobility restrictions that would hit oil demand. Austria imposed a lockdown while Germany introduced some restrictions.

The concerns come as the oil market fixates on the prospect of releases from strategic crude reserves by the U.S. and China. The latter said Thursday it was working on one, while the U.S. has repeatedly said the option to tap its Strategic Petroleum Reserves remains on the table.

“It’s a potent one-two punch for the petroleum complex, when there is a looming supply burst combined with a hit to demand from the virus,” said John Kilduff, founding partner at Again Capital LLC.

After rising to the highest in seven years, oil has faltered over the past month even as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies stuck with a cautious approach to restoring output. Alarmed by surging gasoline costs, U.S. President Joe Biden tried and failed to get the OPEC+ group to deliver more crude and then pivoted to a possible release from America’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Potential weakness in China’s economy has also contributed to the bearish factors.

Despite the renewed demand fears, Friday’s sell off may have been overdone, according to Goldman analysts including Damien Courvalin and Callum Bruce.  High-frequency inventory data points to a supply-demand imbalance of around 2 million barrels a day over the last four weeks, with OECD crude and Atlantic basin at seven-year lows.

“This magnitude of deficit is in fact on its own sufficient to absorb the current perceived headwinds to the oil bull thesis, with lower prices in fact reducing the odds of a strategic release,” they said in a note.

Meanwhile, the so-called prompt WTI spread continued to narrow as supplies grow at the Cushing, Oklahoma, hub. The January contract settled at 71 cents premium to February futures, the smallest premium since mid-October.

The rout also extended into refined product markets. Benchmark U.S. gasoline and heating oil crack spreads, a reflection of refining margins, slumped more than 5% each. Europe’s diesel crack also fell sharply.

Prices:

  • Brent fell $2.35 to settle at $78.89 a barrel in New York
  • WTI for January delivery lost $2.47 to reach $75.94
  • The December contract, which expires Friday, was down $2.91 at $76.10

Some traders were still placing bullish bets in the options markets, despite the selloff in prices this week. Contracts that would profit a buyer from a rally toward $200 traded on Thursday for the second week. While relatively cheap, such bets protect against a potential spike in prices.

(Sharon Cho and Alex Longley)